IARC 60th Anniversary - 19-21 May 2026
Session : Rapid Fire
The impact of prevention policies of major behavioural risk factors on future cancer burden in the Nordic countries
TICKLE A. 1, PALSHOF F. 2, LARØNNINGEN S. 3, ANDERSSON T. 4, KØNIG S. 2, KØSTER B. 2, BERSTA P. 5, ROBSAHM T. 5, DAHL-OLSEN E. 6, KRISTIANSEN M. 6, LAPPI-HEIKKINEN S. 5, TANSKANEN T. 5, STENSTRÖM L. 8, HARALDSDÓTTIR Á. 9, EINARSDÓTTIR S. 9, KRISTJÁNSDÓTTIR L. 9, BERG I. 10, SOERJOMATARAM I. 1, STORM H. 2
1 International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France; 2 Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark; 3 The Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway; 4 Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; 5 Finnish Cancer Registry, Helsinki, Finland; 6 Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; 7 The Faroese Cancer Registry, Tórshavn, Faroe Islands; 8 Cancerfonden, Stockholm, Sweden; 9 Icelandic Cancer Society, Reykjavik , Iceland; 10 Norwegian Cancer Society, Oslo, Norway
Background: The NORDCAN database provides harmonised high-quality cancer data for the Nordic countries and offers a valuable opportunity to evaluate prevention strategies.
Methods: We applied the macrosimulation tool Prevent to model the impact of five hypothetical prevalence reduction scenarios for major behavioural modifiable cancer risk factors—risky alcohol consumption, overweight/obesity, tobacco smoking, and physical activity—projected to 2070. Data on risk factor prevalence, incidence of related cancers, and population projections were obtained from national statistics and NORDCAN (baseline 2022). Relative risks were derived from published literature and the World Cancer Research Fund.
Results: In the absence of intervention, 6,190,126 cases relating to cancer sites associated with the four risk factors are projected between 2022 and 2070, culminating in a projected 145,063 cases in the year 2070 alone (a 47% increase from 2022). Under a 50% prevalence reduction over 10 years, more than 274,000 cancer cases could be averted throughout the 48-year period, increasing to almost 132,000 cases under complete elimination. Risk factor prevalence differed across countries, with, alcohol consumption highest in Iceland, obesity in Iceland and Sweden, smoking in Denmark and physical activity in Norway. Finland had the largest proportion of preventable alcohol-related cancers (14% with half elimination), while Denmark was projected to benefit most from smoking reductions (16% incidence reduction with full elimination). Sweden showed the greatest relative benefit from eliminating insufficient physical activity (4%). The largest absolute reductions were observed for lung, breast, and colorectal cancers.
Conclusions: Substantial reductions in cancer incidence are achievable through targeted prevention strategies for four behavioural risk factors only. Our analysis demonstrates that the impact of prevention is country-specific and risk factor–dependent, and that prioritising the most influential exposures in each setting could prevent up to 47,000 cancer cases annually in the Nordic region by 2070.