IARC 60th Anniversary - 19-21 May 2026
Session : Rapid Fire
Avoidable deaths through the primary prevention, early detection, and curative treatment of cancer worldwide: a population-based study
LANGSELIUS O. 1,2,3, RUMGAY H. 1, VIGNAT J. 1, CHARVAT H. 1, RUTHERFORD M. 1,4, MAFFRA A. 5, MORGAN E. 1, LI M. 6, SANCHEZ ROMERO L. 7, SIMMS K. 8, BRAY F. 1, SOERJOMATARAM I. 1
1 IARC/ WHO, lyon, France; 2 Institute for Medical Information Processing, Biometry and Epidemiology - IBE, LMU, Munich, Germany; 3 Pettenkofer School of Public Health, Munich, Germany; 4 Biostatistics Research Group, Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, United Kingdom; 5 Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Group (EPI CAN), Department of Precision Health, Luxembourg Institute of Health, 1 A-B Rue Thomas Edison, Strassen, L-1445, Luxembourg, Luxembourg; 6 State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China; 7 Oncology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington DC, United States; 8 The Daffodil Centre, a joint venture between Cancer Council New South Wales and the University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia., Sydney, Australia
Background: Global disparities exist in cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Estimates of avoidable deaths provide information to prioritize interventions and narrow cancer inequalities. The aim of this study was to estimate “avoidable deaths” among people diagnosed with cancer, through risk factor reduction and improved survival through early detection and curative treatment.
Methods: National incidence estimates for 35 cancer sites in 185 countries were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2022. We estimated avoidable deaths through primary prevention (preventable deaths), and from early detection and improved access to treatment (treatable deaths) by cancer and country. Deaths avoidable through primary prevention were estimated using population attributable fractions for tobacco use, alcohol consumption, excess body weight, infectious agents, and ultraviolet radiation obtained from the literature. Deaths avoidable through improvements in early detection and access to curative cancer treatment were estimated by eliminating survival differences using 5-year net survival from the SURVCAN-3 project and additional sources.
Findings: Five years after cancer diagnosis, almost half (47·6% (95%UI: 47·5, 47·8)) of the 9·43 million expected deaths (4·49 million/9·43 million) were avoidable. Of these, 3·13 (3·12, 3·14) million (33·2% (33·1, 33·3)) deaths were avoidable by preventing exposure to five risk factors and 1·36 million (1·36, 1·37) (14·4% (14·4, 14·5)) were avoidable by improving detection and access to curative treatment. Lung, liver, stomach, and colorectal cancer were the main drivers, accounting for 54% of all avoidable deaths. Lung cancer was the most preventable (35% of deaths avoidable through primary prevention, 1·08 million/3·13 million), while female breast cancer was the most treatable (15% of deaths avoidable through early detection and treatment, 0·20 million/1·36 million). Yet, disproportionately large proportions of avoidable deaths were observed in low and medium human development index (HDI) countries for cervical and breast cancer.
Conclusions/ Implications for policy: Nearly half of deaths among people diagnosed with cancer globally could be avoided through primary prevention and improvements in early detection and curative cancer treatment. Global efforts are needed to tailor prevention, early diagnosis and treatment of cancer to address inequities in avoidable deaths, especially in low and medium HDI countries. The results aligns with the WHO’s Best Buys for tackling noncommunicable diseases, including the scaling up of tobacco control programmes to reduce the overwhelming burden of lung and other tobacco-related cancers, and with the signature initiatives of the WHO, to markedly reduce the burden and suffering from cervical and breast cancer in the next decades.