IARC 60th Anniversary - 19-21 May 2026
Session : 21/05/26 - Posters
J-SHIELD Study Protocol: Impact and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Gender-Neutral HPV Vaccination in Japan Through the METHIS Modelling Platform
TOGAWA K. 1, MAN I. 1, MACACU A. 1, IGARASHI A. 2, GEORGES D. 1, HAGIWARA Y. 2, SHOJI A. 2, KATANODA K. 3, BAUSSANO I. 1
1 Early Detection, Prevention, and Infections Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France; 2 Department of Health Policy and Public Health, Graduate School of Pharmacy, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; 3 Division of Population Data Science, National Cancer Center Institute for Cancer Control, Tokyo, Japan
Background:
Japan introduced a national HPV vaccination programme in April 2013 for girls aged 12–16 years. However, the government suspended its proactive recommendation in June 2013, after which uptake fell to below 1%. Although proactive recommendations resumed in April 2022, HPV vaccination coverage among the current target cohorts—while improving—has remained below the levels previously achieved in the pre-suspension cohorts. Given the suboptimal coverage in girls and the increasing burden of cervical cancer and other HPV-related cancers in Japan, it is crucial to develop data-driven prevention strategies.
Objectives:
The J-SHIELD project aims to evaluate the vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness of including boys in the HPV vaccination programme in Japan, to guide policy decisions.
Methods:
The study integrates epidemiological, behavioural, and cost data. Data sources include a multicentre cross-sectional study of Japanese women (conducted in 2011–2012) to estimate genotype-specific HPV prevalence; national statistics on cancer incidence and mortality; a nationwide online survey to collect sexual behaviour data; health insurance claims data to estimate cancer treatment cost data; and relevant published literature. The study will leverage the METHIS modelling platform (ModElling Tools for HPV Infection-related cancerS) developed by IARC’s Public Health Decision Science Team. METHIS simulates the dynamics of sexual contact and HPV transmission to estimate and project the burden of cervical cancer and other HPV-related cancers in a population, as well as the impact of cervical cancer prevention interventions. Sensitivity analyses will address uncertainties in behavioural parameters, thereby strengthening the robustness of the findings.
Results:
The study is expected to yield estimated impacts of HPV vaccination under different vaccination scenarios, considering varying vaccination coverage levels in boys and girls, on HPV infection rates, and on the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and other HPV-related cancers.
Conclusions/Implications for practice or policy:
This collaborative study between local experts and IARC is expected to provide critical evidence to inform ongoing discussions on boys’ vaccination and national HPV immunization policy in Japan, thereby supporting optimal resource allocation and enhancing preventive measures for cervical and other HPV-related cancers in the country.