IARC 60th Anniversary - 19-21 May 2026
Session : Global and local modelling for shaping future cancer control policies
Determining context-specific economically feasible age ranges of female HPV catch-up vaccination in LMICs: a model-based health economic assessment
DAGNE A. 1, GEORGES . 1, MACACU A. 1, WITTENAUER R. 1, FUADY A. 2,3, GINI A. 1, BAUSSANO I. 1, MAN I. 1
1 Early Detection, Prevention and Infections Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO), Lyon, France; 2 Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia; 3 Evidence-based Health Policy Centre, The Indonesian Medical Education and Research Centre, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
Background
As global supply constraints are easing, catch-up HPV vaccination will be pivotal in achieving WHO’s cervical cancer (CC) elimination goals for several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this study, we assessed the health-economic impact of catch-up HPV vaccination for females in LMICs.
Methods
We adapted the IARC’s METHIS modelling platform with data from 132 LMICs. Beyond primary target age (9-14 years), HPV catch-up vaccination was simulated varying the maximum catch-up age up to 30 years. The budget impact was reported for each LMIC as a fraction of national 5-year immunization budgets and current health expenditure. Cervical cancer treatment costs were informed from selected high-quality data countries, allowing assessment of cost-effectiveness. The 30% GDP-per-capita was used as cost-effectiveness threshold.
Results
In LMICs, catch-up HPV vaccination up to age 30 was estimated to avert 9.2 million cervical cancers over the lifetime of females aged 9–30 years. Across countries, the budget impact of catch-up vaccination targeting females up to age 30 ranged from 0.007% to 2.24% of 5-year current health expenditure; and from 0.0016% to 236.65% of 5-year immunization budgets. Vaccine procurement accounted for about 70% of total costs. Gavi support was estimated to reduce the budget by 69.5% in eligible countries for catch-up vaccination up to age 18. HPV catch-up vaccination up to age 30 years was cost-effective in all countries except Nigeria (cost-effective up to age 21).
Conclusion
In LMICs, once adequate coverage among the primary target age group (9–14 years) is achieved, expanding HPV catch-up vaccination programs was impactful and cost-effective. Sustainable financing, Gavi support, and efforts to minimize vaccination costs remain critical to the success of catch-up programs and progress toward cervical cancer elimination.