IARC 60th Anniversary - 19-21 May 2026
Session : 21/05/26 - Posters
Projection of Colorectal Cancer Incidence in Brazil Until 2040
DE SOUZA REIS R. 1, DA SILVA DE LIMA F. 1, MONTEIRO SCAFF A. 1, NASCIMENTO DA SILVA D. 1, MARTINS T. 1
1 Fundação do Câncer, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common malignant neoplasm of the gastrointestinal tract and, in 2022, as the fourth most frequent cancer in terms of incidence among both men and women worldwide. In Brazil, it was the third most incident cancer, with an estimated 45,630 new cases in 2024. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of colorectal cancer (ICD-10: C18–C21) in 2040, stratified by sex and age group. Methods: A methodology similar to that used for GLOBOCAN incidence estimates was applied. The analysis was based on the incidence-to-mortality ratio, which was applied to crude mortality rates estimated for the year 2040 using linear regression. Estimates were produced for Brazil, its regions, and states, stratified by sex and age group. Results: The projections indicate the occurrence of 71,050 new CRC cases in Brazil in 2040, corresponding to a crude incidence rate of 32.24 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. More than 90% of cases are expected to occur among individuals aged 50 years and older, while the number of new cases among younger individuals is projected to remain stable. Conclusions: Projections for 2040 indicate an increase in colorectal cancer incidence in Brazil, reflecting both population aging and the country’s epidemiological transition with respect to risk factors associated with the development of the disease.